The Storm Before The Storm

( Read on, or view here: https://youtu.be/5DaRzQC-cnc )

Donald Trump’s slogan ‘make America rich again’ would more accurately read ‘make the world poor again’. That’s everywhere, including his own polluted patch. The precedents for his preposterous plan are dire. Our Prime Minister’s keep calm and carry on approach is probably the least worst option, but it’ll still cost us.

While other major economies are huffing and puffing and threatening to hit back with new taxes on things the Americans are trying to sell them, Britain is quietly thanking its lucky stars.

The tariffs laid on us are much lower than those imposed on the European Union. And ardent Brexit backers are smugly saying: ‘I told you so.’

But they still weigh in at ten per cent, on top of the twenty-five per cent on car exports already dumped on us.

And leading analysts’ verdict is … bang goes Keir Starmer’s dream of better times ahead via economic growth.

The US levies were ‘pretty close to our worst-case scenario,’ sighed the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is right to point out that her budget this autumn is a long way off. But, for all her denials, she can’t rule out unthinkable options such as more tax rises.

Meantime, agonised talks continue apace between British and American officials aimed at getting us some kind of offsetting trade deal.

Our begging bowl is brimming with tasty little sweeties for The Donald, like state visits and an audience with the king. But how far it’ll get us is anyone’s guess.

There’s also the small matter of the extent of the damage we’ll be trying to limit. The auguries are hardly propitious.

Last time the Americans pulled a stunt like this, via the so-called Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act back in 1930, the consequences were hideous.

Not only did the ensuing trade war make the Great Depression of the period a whole lot worse, it also got nations at one another’s throats as they all pulled up their drawbridges.

The Germans, already humiliated by losing World War One and reeling from all the reparations they were having to shell out, were especially hard hit.

Which is why many historians argue that Uncle Sam’s brilliant idea was a contributory factor to the outbreak of World War Two.

While others may say that’s a bit overblown, the official U.S. Senate website does describe the Smoot-Hawley thing as: ‘Among the most catastrophic acts in congressional history.’

Given that Trump’s never made any secret of his desire to give it another go anyway, you can’t help but wonder what possessed the Yankee electorate to plump for him in the first place.

After all, even if the consequences aren’t as apocalyptic as last time, the very idea raises bullying cruelty to the level of an art form.

But here, at the risk of sounding racist about white but red necked Americans, their history is worth a look.

Many of the European settlers were brutalised by either religious oppression or extreme poverty. A million or so, for example, were fleeing the Irish Potato Famine of the 1840s.

Another million or so starved to death back home as the British government looked on and did precious little to help, even though they owned the country at the time.

Safe to say then the milk of human kindness wasn’t exactly flowing freely among those who made it to the New World.

This in itself might go some way to explaining why they pretty quickly embarked on a policy of genocide towards the locals.

All very well making cool films about heroic cowboys fighting off the horrid indi-bums, the harsh reality is they set out to – and succeeded in – killing the vast majority of them.

One egregious example of deliberate mass murder was the way they gave blankets from smallpox patients to Native Americans, to spread the disease.

Of course, all that was a long time ago. But it’s also worth remembering that Uncle Sam only rode to Europe’s rescue in the world wars of the twentieth century when he too came under attack.

The point here being that embedded in the American zeitgeist there’s still a residue of devil-take-the-hindmost.

So when Trump announced, like a chuckling chat show host, which countries he was going to hit and how hard there were millions of his countrymen, and women, egging him on.

Assuming, as many economists do, that they’ll get hit in the pocket just as hard as everyone else across the globe, then the smile might get wiped off their faces.

But that won’t be just yet. For the moment they’re mostly buying his line that it’s about time other countries stopped ripping them off.

And, in theory, there’s not a lot wrong with the idea of making America a bit more self-sufficient by steadily building up its manufacturing base instead of just buying from abroad.

Problem being it’s one thing to decide the kitchen could do with a lick of paint. Quite another to remedy the situation by setting fire to the whole street. Not very neighbourly, that.

Another problem is that, even if things on the world’s money markets settle down and the US economy doesn’t implode, all those new factories Trump has in mind will be years in the making.

Which means that the benefits he’s promising his people aren’t likely to show their faces during his presidency. And, as he isn’t allowed another go, he’s a bit snookered.

Unless, that is, he overturns the American constitution as well as everything else, and has a crack at a third term.

That shouldn’t be possible, legally, but that wouldn’t stop him trying. He’s already dropped plenty of hints in that direction.

And he has shown himself a past master at manipulating the law by managing, in spite of all the crimes of which he stands accused, to be in the White House instead of a state penitentiary.

Not that he’s exactly got forever to play with, mind.

As a character in Shakespeare’s Henry Fourth Part One ruefully admitted: ‘Thought’s the slave of life, and life, Time’s fool. And Time, that takes survey of all the world, must have a stop.’

The man’s seventy-eight already, for heaven’s sake. He’ll be eighty-two when the presidency’s next up for grabs.

Maybe it’s because he’s just so excited about all the attention he’s getting everywhere, including alas, this column, that he’s not minded to count that bit.

But then not counting bits does seem to be one of his special skills.

Take that long list of countries he plans to take his big tariff stick to. Interesting that in the case of Russia it’s more of a Ken Dodd-style tickling stick, but that’s another story.

Among those places that are supposed to be taking a hit are the Heard and McDonald Islands, small chunks of volcanic land off Antarctica.

Thus far little is known about the only inhabitants’ track record when it comes to paying their taxes, as some things are demonstrably difficult to quantify.

Be intriguing to see any one of them in the dock. They’re pretty cool in zoos, and back in the day obliged audiences with circus tricks.

But there’s no getting round it, they’re unlikely to pay much heed to anything the US administration has to say. Because they’re penguins.

Nice one, Donald. Durrr.